Royals at Rays
KC12–
TB5Last play · Richie Palacios flies out to left fielder John Rave.
Win probability
Rays0%
KC 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 6 – 1 TB
Royals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+162 / -198
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Loftin homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 1) — -12% Royals
9Junior Caminero singles on a ground ball to left fielder John Rave. Jonathan Aranda scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd.12–5
9Cedric Mullins singles on a line drive to left fielder John Rave. Taylor Walls scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.12–4
9Jonathan Aranda singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kameron Misner. Chandler Simpson scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd.12–3
9Josh Rojas doubles (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Nick Loftin scores.12–2
8Junior Caminero homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field.11–2
8Lane Thomas grounds out, shortstop Taylor Walls to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.11–1
8Kameron Misner doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Carter Jensen scores. Tyler Tolbert to 3rd.10–1
8Starling Marte out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Salvador Perez scores.9–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.