D-backs at Rays
Last play · Adrian Del Castillo pops out to shortstop Taylor Walls.
Win probability
Rays100%
AZ 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonathan Aranda homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 5) — +25% Rays
8Ketel Marte homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.2–4
6Cedric Mullins out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tommy Troy. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd.1–4
5Jonathan Aranda homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Yandy Díaz scores.1–3
1Junior Caminero homers (21) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
1Corbin Carroll singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Geraldo Perdomo scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
