D-backs at Rays
Last play · Ildemaro Vargas pops out to second baseman Ben Williamson.
Win probability
Rays100%
AZ 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 4 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+167 / -204
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cedric Mullins homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 2) — +15% Rays
8Ketel Marte homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.1–5
6Ben Williamson homers (2) on a line drive to left center field.0–5
5Junior Caminero homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
2Yandy Díaz out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Taylor Walls scores.0–3
2Cedric Mullins homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
1Junior Caminero singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
