Yankees at Rays
Last play · Cedric Mullins flies out to center fielder Trent Grisham.
Win probability
Rays0%
NYY 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 3 – 1 TB
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-129 / +107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Caballero homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Jasson Domínguez scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. (inning 5) — -36% Yankees
9Ben Rice homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field.5–1
8José Caballero homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.4–1
5Richie Palacios singles on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Chandler Simpson scores.3–1
5José Caballero homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Jasson Domínguez scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
