Yankees at Rays
Last play · Jasson Domínguez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
NYY 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 2 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 53.1% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+101 / -122
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonathan Aranda singles on a line drive to right fielder Jasson Domínguez. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd. (inning 3) — +11% Rays
7Jonathan Aranda out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. Taylor Walls scores.0–3
5Jonathan Aranda doubles (14) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Max Schuemann. Nick Fortes scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd.0–2
3Jonathan Aranda singles on a line drive to right fielder Jasson Domínguez. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
