Yankees at Rays
Last play · Trent Grisham strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
NYY 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 3 – 6 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field. Max Schuemann scores. Trent Grisham scores. (inning 3) — -37% Yankees
7Ali Sánchez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.4–6
4Yandy Díaz homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.3–6
4Hunter Feduccia homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Richie Palacios scores.3–5
4Richie Palacios doubles (7) on a line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Taylor Walls scores.3–3
3Ben Rice homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field. Max Schuemann scores. Trent Grisham scores.3–2
2Yandy Díaz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Richie Palacios scores. Hunter Feduccia to 2nd.0–2
2Victor Mesa Jr. homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
