Yankees at Rays
Last play · Junior Caminero grounds into a force out, shortstop José Caballero to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jonathan Aranda out at 2nd.
Win probability
Rays0%
NYY 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 7 – 3 TB
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Ben Rice homers (27) on a fly ball to right field. Trent Grisham scores. (inning 3) — -21% Yankees
8Cody Bellinger singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Ben Rice scores. Jasson Domínguez to 3rd.12–4
7Ryan McMahon doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ryan Vilade. Max Schuemann scores.11–4
6Ben Williamson singles on a line drive to left fielder Max Schuemann. Chandler Simpson scores.10–4
6Ben Rice homers (28) on a fly ball to center field. Austin Wells scores. Trent Grisham scores.10–3
4Austin Wells homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.7–3
3Victor Mesa Jr. hits a ground-rule double (2) on a line drive down the left-field line. Yandy Díaz scores.6–3
3Junior Caminero grounds into a double play, shortstop José Caballero to first baseman Cody Bellinger. Nick Fortes scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd. Jonathan Aranda out at 2nd. Junior Caminero out at 1st.6–2
3Jazz Chisholm Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Cody Bellinger scores.6–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
