Mariners at Rays
Last play · Colt Emerson flies out to center fielder Jonny DeLuca.
Win probability
Rays100%
SEA 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 2 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Vilade homers (7) on a line drive to left field. Jonathan Aranda scores. Junior Caminero scores. (inning 7) — +18% Rays
8Nick Fortes singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Michael Rucker. Ben Williamson scores. Nick Fortes to 2nd. Nick Fortes advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by pitcher Michael Rucker.1–6
7Ryan Vilade homers (7) on a line drive to left field. Jonathan Aranda scores. Junior Caminero scores.1–5
3Jonathan Aranda doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Victor Robles. Yandy Díaz scores.1–2
2Ben Williamson doubles (9) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Chandler Simpson scores.1–1
2Colt Emerson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Cole Young scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
