Guardians at Rays
Last play · Petey Halpin grounds out, shortstop Ben Williamson to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Rays100%
CLE 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 1 – 5 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 53.1% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Vilade homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Jonny DeLuca scores. (inning 2) — +20% Rays
9Austin Hedges homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Gabriel Arias scores.3–11
8Richie Palacios homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Cedric Mullins scores. Jonny DeLuca scores.1–11
8Chandler Simpson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Petey Halpin. Jonathan Aranda scores.1–8
7Nick Fortes doubles (12) on a line drive to center fielder Petey Halpin. Ben Williamson scores.1–7
6Junior Caminero singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder David Fry. Nick Fortes scores. Yandy Díaz to 2nd.1–6
4Nick Fortes singles on a line drive to center fielder Petey Halpin. Chandler Simpson scores. Ryan Vilade to 3rd. Ben Williamson to 2nd.1–5
4Ben Williamson reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Jonny DeLuca scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd. Ryan Vilade to 2nd.1–4
4Jonny DeLuca singles on a ground ball to left fielder David Fry. Cedric Mullins scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
