Mariners at Rays
Last play · Hunter Feduccia strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays0%
SEA 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 7 – 0 TB
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.P. Crawford doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Mitch Garver scores. Cole Young scores. Buddy Kennedy to 3rd. (inning 2) — -18% Mariners
9J.P. Crawford doubles (10) on a ground ball to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Buddy Kennedy scores.8–2
8Jonathan Aranda homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Yandy Díaz scores.7–2
4Randy Arozarena homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Buddy Kennedy scores. J.P. Crawford scores.7–0
4Weston Wilson homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.4–0
2J.P. Crawford doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Mitch Garver scores. Cole Young scores. Buddy Kennedy to 3rd.3–0
2Victor Robles out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Josh Naylor scores. Mitch Garver to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
