Guardians at Rays
Last play · Brayan Rocchio strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
CLE 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 1 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7 ↓
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+103 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cedric Mullins singles on a bunt pop to first baseman Kyle Manzardo. Chandler Simpson scores. (inning 5) — +15% Rays
5Cedric Mullins singles on a bunt pop to first baseman Kyle Manzardo. Chandler Simpson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
