Rangers at Rays
Last play · Ryan Vilade pops out to first baseman Jake Burger in foul territory.
Win probability
Rays0%
TEX 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 0 TB
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 6) — +16% Rays
8Evan Carter singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Ezequiel Duran scores.4–1
7Austin Wynns homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
6Junior Caminero triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Yandy Díaz scores.2–1
3Ezequiel Duran out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Joc Pederson scores. Wyatt Langford to 3rd.2–0
2Nicky Lopez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Evan Carter scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
