Guardians at Rays
Last play · Angel Martínez flies out to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr.
Win probability
Rays100%
CLE 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 2 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Angel Martínez. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 3rd. (inning 5) — +15% Rays
6Hunter Feduccia out on a sacrifice bunt, first baseman Kyle Manzardo to second baseman Gabriel Arias. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Richie Palacios to 2nd.0–3
5Cedric Mullins out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Steven Kwan. Jonathan Aranda scores.0–2
5Junior Caminero doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Angel Martínez. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
