Rangers at Rays
Last play · Nicky Lopez lines out to third baseman Junior Caminero.
Win probability
Rays100%
TEX 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Vilade homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Jonathan Aranda scores. (inning 1) — +16% Rays
1Ryan Vilade homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Jonathan Aranda scores.0–3
1Yandy Díaz homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
