Rangers at Rays
Last play · Ezequiel Duran strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
TEX 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 1 TB
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+152 / -185
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cedric Mullins homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — +29% Rays
8Cedric Mullins homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
6Jonny DeLuca homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
5Wyatt Langford doubles (13) on a line drive to left fielder Jonny DeLuca. Alejandro Osuna scores.2–1
4Joc Pederson reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Taylor Walls. Ezequiel Duran scores. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Taylor Walls.1–1
3Yandy Díaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Hunter Feduccia scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
