Orioles at Rays
Last play · Ryan Vilade flies out sharply to center fielder Leody Taveras.
Win probability
Rays0%
BAL 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 2 TB
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+138 / -148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Beavers singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Gunnar Henderson scores. Leody Taveras scores. Jeremiah Jackson out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. to third baseman Junior Caminero to shortstop Taylor Walls. (inning 7) — -31% Orioles
9Junior Caminero grounds out, third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand to first baseman Pete Alonso. Jorge Mateo scores.6–5
9Jonathan Aranda singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Richie Palacios scores. Taylor Walls scores.6–4
8Gunnar Henderson homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field. Tyler O'Neill scores.6–2
7Dylan Beavers singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Gunnar Henderson scores. Leody Taveras scores. Jeremiah Jackson out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. to third baseman Junior Caminero to shortstop Taylor Walls.4–2
3Victor Mesa Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Junior Caminero scores.2–2
3Colton Cowser homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
2Richie Palacios doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Liam Hicks scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd.1–1
2Christian Encarnacion-Strand out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Tyler O'Neill scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
