Orioles at Rays
BAL6–
TB7Last play · Leody Taveras strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Rays100%
BAL 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 6 – 4 TB
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -161
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonny DeLuca singles on a ground ball to left fielder Leody Taveras. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda scores. Junior Caminero to 2nd. (inning 7) — +44% Rays
7Jonny DeLuca singles on a ground ball to left fielder Leody Taveras. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda scores. Junior Caminero to 2nd.6–7
7Jonathan Aranda singles on a line drive to left fielder Leody Taveras. Taylor Walls scores. Yandy Díaz to 2nd.6–5
5Christian Encarnacion-Strand homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Gunnar Henderson scores.6–4
5Pete Alonso homers (28) on a fly ball to right field.4–4
4Jorge Mateo homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Richie Palacios scores.3–4
4Ryan Vilade homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.3–2
4Christian Encarnacion-Strand singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Jackson Holliday scores. Coby Mayo scores.3–1
3Yandy Díaz homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.