Blue Jays at Rays
Last play · Jonathan Aranda flies out to left fielder Myles Straw.
Win probability
Rays0%
TOR 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 8 – 3 TB
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Taylor Walls singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brett Bateman. Cedric Mullins scores. Richie Palacios scores. (inning 4) — +17% Rays
8Richie Palacios out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Myles Straw. Liam Hicks scores.10–5
8Cedric Mullins out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Myles Straw. Yandy Díaz scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd.10–4
7Josh Smith homers (3) on a line drive to right field. Ernie Clement scores.10–3
5Brett Bateman singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Ernie Clement scores.8–3
5Kazuma Okamoto homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field.7–3
4Taylor Walls singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brett Bateman. Cedric Mullins scores. Richie Palacios scores.6–3
4George Springer walks.6–0
4Alejandro Kirk singles on a ground ball to second baseman Richie Palacios. Ernie Clement scores. Brett Bateman to 3rd.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
