Blue Jays at Rays
TOR6–
TB7Last play · Alejandro Kirk flies out sharply to center fielder Cedric Mullins.
Win probability
Rays100%
TOR 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 5 – 7 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+179 / -193
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field. Junior Caminero scores. (inning 1) — +17% Rays
6Charles McAdoo doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Josh Smith scores.6–7
5Kazuma Okamoto singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Myles Straw scores. Alejandro Kirk to 2nd.5–7
5Alejandro Kirk singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Charles McAdoo scores. Myles Straw to 3rd.4–7
5Nathan Lukes out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Brandon Valenzuela scores.3–7
5Charles McAdoo singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Ryan Vilade. Josh Smith scores. Brandon Valenzuela to 2nd.2–7
4Junior Caminero grounds out, shortstop Andrés Giménez to first baseman Kazuma Okamoto. Taylor Walls scores.1–7
4Rays challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Chandler Simpson singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Max Scherzer. Richie Palacios scores. Taylor Walls to 2nd.1–6
4Taylor Walls hits a sacrifice bunt. Cedric Mullins scores. Richie Palacios to 3rd. Taylor Walls to 1st.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.