Padres at Rays
SD4–
TB9Last play · Freddy Fermin lines out sharply to center fielder Cedric Mullins.
Win probability
Rays100%
SD 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 7 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jorge Mateo out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Jonny DeLuca scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd. (inning 4) — +13% Rays
7Umpire reviewed (fan interference), call on the field was upheld: Cedric Mullins homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.4–9
6Junior Caminero singles on a soft fly ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Taylor Walls scores. Jonathan Aranda to 3rd.4–8
6Jackson Merrill homers (22) on a fly ball to right center field. Ty France scores.4–7
5Jonny DeLuca singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Chandler Simpson scores.2–7
5Jake Cronenworth grounds into a force out, second baseman Jorge Mateo to shortstop Taylor Walls. Xander Bogaerts scores. Freddy Fermin out at 2nd. Jake Cronenworth to 1st.2–6
5Freddy Fermin grounds into a force out, shortstop Taylor Walls to second baseman Jorge Mateo. Jackson Merrill scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd. Austin Hays out at 2nd. Freddy Fermin to 1st.1–6
4Yandy Díaz singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Taylor Walls scores.0–6
4Taylor Walls singles on a ground ball to left fielder Luis Rengifo. Cedric Mullins scores.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.