Blue Jays at Rays
Last play · Jonny DeLuca grounds out, second baseman Charles McAdoo to first baseman Brandon Valenzuela.
Win probability
Rays0%
TOR 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 1 TB
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -161
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Lukes homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — -22% Blue Jays
7George Springer singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Charles McAdoo scores. Daz Cameron scores. Alejandro Kirk to 3rd.5–1
5Daz Cameron homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
5Nathan Lukes homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
4Junior Caminero singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Daz Cameron. Chandler Simpson scores.1–1
2Kazuma Okamoto homers (26) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
