Mets at Rays
Last play · Yandy Díaz called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rays0%
NYM 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 0 TB
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+168 / -181
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mark Vientos homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 7) — -23% Mets
8Chandler Simpson singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Jonathan Aranda scores. Jorge Mateo to 3rd.3–2
8Liam Hicks singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Taylor Walls scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.3–1
7Francisco Alvarez singles on a line drive to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Cristian Pache scores. Marcus Semien to 3rd.3–0
7Mark Vientos homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
4Mark Vientos grounds into a double play, shortstop Taylor Walls to second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Bo Bichette scores. Carson Benge out at 2nd. Mark Vientos out at 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
