Mets at Rays
Last play · A.J. Ewing strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
NYM 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 2 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nick Morabito. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 1) — +14% Rays
8Ryan Vilade singles on a ground ball to pitcher Jefry Yan. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd.2–6
7Nick Fortes challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Francisco Lindor walks. Jared Young scores. Marcus Semien to 3rd. A.J. Ewing to 2nd.2–5
6Yandy Díaz homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field.1–5
6Taylor Walls out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Nick Morabito. Nick Fortes scores.1–4
6Nick Fortes doubles (15) on a ground ball to left fielder Nick Morabito. Chandler Simpson scores.1–3
3Ryan Vilade singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Yandy Díaz to 2nd.1–2
1Junior Caminero singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nick Morabito. Yandy Díaz scores.1–1
1Francisco Lindor homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
