Pirates at Rangers
Last play · Jake Mangum flies out to left fielder Ezequiel Duran.
Win probability
Rangers100%
PIT 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 5 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Evan Carter singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Mangum. Joc Pederson scores. Josh Jung to 3rd. (inning 2) — +15% Rangers
5Josh Jung grounds into a force out, third baseman Nick Yorke to second baseman Nick Gonzales. Corey Seager scores. Jake Burger to 3rd. Joc Pederson out at 2nd. Josh Jung to 1st.1–5
5Corey Seager singles on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Ezequiel Duran scores.1–4
5Ezequiel Duran doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Josh Smith scores.1–3
2Josh Smith out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jake Mangum. Josh Jung scores. Evan Carter to 2nd.1–2
2Evan Carter singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Mangum. Joc Pederson scores. Josh Jung to 3rd.1–1
1Ryan O'Hearn singles on a ground ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Oneil Cruz scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
