Pirates at Rangers
Last play · Kyle Higashioka strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers0%
PIT 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 2 TEX
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Burger singles on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Andrew McCutchen scores. Brandon Nimmo scores. (inning 8) — +45% Rangers
9Oneil Cruz homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Billy Cook scores. Jake Mangum scores.8–4
9Jake Mangum reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Josh Jung. Nick Gonzales scores. Billy Cook to 2nd.5–4
8Jake Burger singles on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Andrew McCutchen scores. Brandon Nimmo scores.4–4
5Bryan Reynolds singles on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Henry Davis scores. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Brandon Nimmo.4–2
5Brandon Lowe singles on a line drive to left fielder Ezequiel Duran. Spencer Horwitz scores. Henry Davis to 2nd.2–2
2Josh Jung homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Joc Pederson scores.1–2
1Marcell Ozuna singles on a line drive to left fielder Ezequiel Duran. Bryan Reynolds scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
