Yankees at Rangers
Last play · Umpire reviewed (force play), call on the field was upheld: Corey Seager grounds into a double play, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to shortstop José Caballero to first baseman Ben Rice. Josh Jung out at 2nd. Corey Seager out at 1st.
Win probability
Rangers0%
NYY 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 0 TEX
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-113 / -107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Aaron Judge homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 9) — -15% Yankees
9Josh Jung singles on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Danny Jansen scores. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd.3–2
9Danny Jansen triples (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Andrew McCutchen scores.3–1
9Aaron Judge homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.3–0
7Austin Wells homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
1Cody Bellinger doubles (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Aaron Judge scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
