Yankees at Rangers
Last play · Max Schuemann pops out to second baseman Ezequiel Duran.
Win probability
Rangers100%
NYY 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 2 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-113 / -107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Jung singles on a ground ball to left fielder Max Schuemann. Alejandro Osuna scores. Ezequiel Duran scores. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd. (inning 5) — +25% Rangers
7Sam Haggerty singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Ezequiel Duran scores.0–3
5Josh Jung singles on a ground ball to left fielder Max Schuemann. Alejandro Osuna scores. Ezequiel Duran scores. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
