Yankees at Rangers
Last play · Ezequiel Duran grounds into a force out, shortstop José Caballero to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Alejandro Osuna out at 2nd.
Win probability
Rangers0%
NYY 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 4 – 0 TEX
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 53.1% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Trent Grisham scores. (inning 3) — -26% Yankees
9Alejandro Osuna singles on a line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Jake Burger scores. Josh Smith to 2nd.4–2
7Joc Pederson homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.4–1
4Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.4–0
3Aaron Judge homers (11) on a line drive to left field.3–0
3Ben Rice homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Trent Grisham scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
