Cubs at Rangers
Last play · Michael Conforto strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers100%
CHC 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 5 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Jung homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 2) — +15% Rangers
6Kyle Higashioka singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Josh Jung scores. Evan Carter to 2nd.0–6
5Justin Foscue homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.0–5
4Alejandro Osuna singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Joc Pederson scores.0–4
4Joc Pederson doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Evan Carter scores.0–3
2Alejandro Osuna singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Evan Carter scores. Joc Pederson to 2nd.0–2
2Josh Jung homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
