Cubs at Rangers
Last play · Andrew McCutchen flies out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Win probability
Rangers0%
CHC 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 1 TEX
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Seiya Suzuki homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Ian Happ scores. (inning 4) — -21% Cubs
7Michael Busch doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ezequiel Duran. Alex Bregman scores. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki scores.7–1
6Pete Crow-Armstrong hits a ground-rule double (5) on a fly ball to left field. Michael Busch scores.4–1
5Justin Foscue singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Evan Carter scores. Andrew McCutchen to 2nd.3–1
4Seiya Suzuki homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Ian Happ scores.3–0
1Ian Happ singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Michael Conforto scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
