D-backs at Rangers
Last play · Jose Fernandez grounds out, second baseman Ezequiel Duran to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Rangers100%
AZ 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 7 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-109 / -111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joc Pederson homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 1) — +13% Rangers
9Gabriel Moreno out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Evan Carter. Nolan Arenado scores.4–7
9Lourdes Gurriel Jr. grounds into a force out, third baseman Josh Jung to second baseman Ezequiel Duran. Tim Tawa scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd. Ildemaro Vargas out at 2nd. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to 1st.3–7
9Ildemaro Vargas singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Corbin Carroll scores. Tim Tawa to 3rd. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.2–7
5Jake Burger singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Ezequiel Duran scores. Alejandro Osuna to 2nd.1–7
5Alejandro Osuna singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Josh Jung scores. Ezequiel Duran to 3rd.1–6
5Ezequiel Duran reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Corey Seager scores. Josh Jung to 3rd.1–5
5Corey Seager reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Ildemaro Vargas. Brandon Nimmo scores.1–4
4Ezequiel Duran homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
