Cubs at Rangers
Last play · Seiya Suzuki strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers100%
CHC 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 1 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cubs challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Alejandro Osuna reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Michael Busch. Josh Jung scores. Joc Pederson to 3rd. (inning 4) — +13% Rangers
8Evan Carter homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Jung scores.0–3
4Cubs challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Alejandro Osuna reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Michael Busch. Josh Jung scores. Joc Pederson to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
