D-backs at Rangers
Last play · Josh Jung flies out to center fielder Jorge Barrosa.
Win probability
Rangers0%
AZ 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 0 TEX
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado grounds out, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Justin Foscue. (inning 9) — -14% D-backs
1Geraldo Perdomo doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Corbin Carroll scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
