Astros at Rangers
Last play · Brandon Nimmo challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Brandon Nimmo called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rangers0%
HOU 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 4 – 0 TEX
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 9 ↓
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez homers (16) on a line drive to center field. (inning 4) — -17% Astros
7Nick Allen singles on a fly ball to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Jake Meyers scores. Cam Smith scores. Brice Matthews to 3rd.9–0
7Christian Walker homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. Christian Vázquez scores. Jeremy Peña scores.7–0
5Jeremy Peña singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Andrew McCutchen. Nick Allen scores. Christian Vázquez to 3rd.4–0
5Christian Vázquez singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Kumar Rocker. Zach Dezenzo scores. Nick Allen to 2nd.3–0
4Yordan Alvarez homers (16) on a line drive to center field.2–0
1Yordan Alvarez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Evan Carter. Jeremy Peña scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
