Astros at Rangers
HOU7–
TEX10Last play · Yordan Alvarez grounds out, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Rangers100%
HOU 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 4 – 9 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Burger singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brice Matthews. Alejandro Osuna scores. Brandon Nimmo scores. Josh Jung to 2nd. (inning 1) — +17% Rangers
9Jeremy Peña homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.7–10
8Ezequiel Duran singles on a ground ball to left fielder Zach Dezenzo. Jake Burger scores. Evan Carter to 2nd.6–10
8Cam Smith homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.6–9
8Yordan Alvarez homers (18) on a fly ball to right field.5–9
4César Salazar hit by pitch. Cam Smith scores. Braden Shewmake to 3rd. Brice Matthews to 2nd.4–9
3Evan Carter homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.3–9
3Yordan Alvarez homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Brice Matthews scores. Jeremy Peña scores.3–8
1Joc Pederson homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Ezequiel Duran scores. Kyle Higashioka scores.0–8
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.