Astros at Rangers
Last play · Danny Jansen strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers0%
HOU 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 2 TEX
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 8) — -33% Astros
8Joc Pederson homers (6) on a line drive to right center field.4–3
8Taylor Trammell hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by pitcher Tyler Alexander. Christian Walker scores. Taylor Trammell to 3rd.4–2
8Yordan Alvarez homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.3–2
4Yordan Alvarez homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.2–2
3Joc Pederson homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
2Braden Shewmake out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Evan Carter. Taylor Trammell scores.1–1
1Brandon Nimmo singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Joc Pederson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
