Royals at Rangers
Last play · Salvador Perez grounds out, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Rangers100%
KC 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 6 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ezequiel Duran triples (2) on a fly ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Josh Jung scores. Jake Burger scores. (inning 1) — +17% Rangers
8Michael Massey homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Isaac Collins scores.3–6
7Lane Thomas singles on a line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Michael Massey scores.1–6
4Josh Jung singles on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Kyle Higashioka scores. Nicky Lopez scores. Joc Pederson to 2nd.0–6
1Kyle Higashioka doubles (2) on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Alejandro Osuna scores.0–4
1Alejandro Osuna singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Ezequiel Duran scores.0–3
1Ezequiel Duran triples (2) on a fly ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Josh Jung scores. Jake Burger scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
