Royals at Rangers
Last play · Jac Caglianone strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers100%
KC 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 6 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ezequiel Duran singles on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Joc Pederson scores. Jake Burger scores. (inning 1) — +17% Rangers
9Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Maikel Garcia scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd.1–9
8Joc Pederson homers (7) on a line drive to right field.0–9
6Nicky Lopez homers (1) on a line drive to right center field. Danny Jansen scores.0–8
5Brandon Nimmo homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Jung scores.0–6
1Danny Jansen strikes out swinging.0–4
1Alejandro Osuna reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Nick Loftin. Ezequiel Duran scores. Evan Carter to 3rd.0–3
1Ezequiel Duran singles on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Joc Pederson scores. Jake Burger scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
