Royals at Rangers
Last play · Ezequiel Duran singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Brandon Nimmo scores. Jake Burger to 2nd.
Win probability
Rangers100%
KC 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 3 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Burger singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Josh Jung scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd. (inning 9) — +42% Rangers
9Ezequiel Duran singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Brandon Nimmo scores. Jake Burger to 2nd.6–7
9Jake Burger singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Josh Jung scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd.6–6
9Joc Pederson homers (8) on a line drive to right field.6–5
8Danny Jansen doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Jake Burger scores. Ezequiel Duran to 3rd.6–4
8Carter Jensen homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Isaac Collins scores.6–3
7Vinnie Pasquantino doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Sam Haggerty. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Maikel Garcia to 3rd.4–3
7Maikel Garcia singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Helman. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd.3–3
7Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Sam Haggerty. Nick Loftin scores. Carter Jensen to 2nd.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
