Guardians at Rangers
Last play · Patrick Bailey flies out to left fielder Nicky Lopez.
Win probability
Rangers100%
CLE 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 7 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Foscue homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Josh Jung scores. (inning 1) — +17% Rangers
8Ezequiel Duran singles on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Josh Jung scores. Evan Carter to 3rd.0–10
8Evan Carter singles on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Elias Díaz scores. Josh Jung to 2nd.0–9
6Michael Helman homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.0–8
4Wyatt Langford homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.0–7
3Jake Burger singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Joey Cantillo. Ezequiel Duran scores.0–6
3Ezequiel Duran doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder Angel Martínez. Brandon Nimmo scores. Justin Foscue scores.0–5
3Josh Jung homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
1Justin Foscue homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Josh Jung scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
