Twins at Rangers
MIN9–
TEX3Last play · Brandon Nimmo grounds out, second baseman Luke Keaschall to first baseman Royce Lewis.
Win probability
Rangers0%
MIN 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 6 – 0 TEX
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-123 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brooks Lee homers (12) on a line drive to right field. Kody Clemens scores. Josh Bell scores. (inning 1) — -26% Twins
9Justin Foscue homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.9–3
8Ryan Kreidler homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Victor Caratini scores.9–2
6Ezequiel Duran homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.7–2
6Wyatt Langford homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.7–1
6Trevor Larnach singles on a fly ball to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Victor Caratini scores. Luke Keaschall to 2nd.7–0
4Trevor Larnach homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Luke Keaschall scores.6–0
1Brooks Lee homers (12) on a line drive to right field. Kody Clemens scores. Josh Bell scores.4–0
1Josh Bell singles on a ground ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Trevor Larnach scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.