Twins at Rangers
Last play · Jake Burger strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers0%
MIN 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 3 – 2 TEX
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Bell homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Austin Martin scores. Royce Lewis scores. (inning 1) — -28% Twins
6Byron Buxton homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field.4–2
3Joc Pederson homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Elias Díaz scores.3–2
1Josh Bell homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Austin Martin scores. Royce Lewis scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
