Padres at Rangers
SD7–
TEX9Last play · Manny Machado pops out to first baseman Jake Burger in foul territory.
Win probability
Rangers100%
SD 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 6 – 7 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ty France hits a grand slam (7) to right field. Samad Taylor scores. Gavin Sheets scores. Xander Bogaerts scores. (inning 1) — -25% Padres
8Wyatt Langford homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.7–9
8Gavin Sheets homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.7–8
6Ezequiel Duran singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill, deflected by second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. Josh Jung scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd.6–8
4Wyatt Langford doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Josh Jung scores. Wyatt Langford out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Jackson Merrill to second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. to catcher Rodolfo Durán to third baseman Manny Machado.6–7
4Ty France homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.6–6
1Elias Díaz singles on a ground ball to third baseman Manny Machado. Jake Burger scores. Nicky Lopez to 2nd.5–6
1Jake Burger doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Ezequiel Duran scores. Alejandro Osuna scores.5–5
1Alejandro Osuna doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Samad Taylor. Josh Jung scores. Brandon Nimmo scores. Ezequiel Duran to 3rd.5–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.