Padres at Rangers
Last play · Brandon Nimmo challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Brandon Nimmo called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rangers0%
SD 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 0 TEX
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (13) on a line drive to left center field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Samad Taylor scores. (inning 10) — -55% Padres
10Wyatt Langford singles on a ground ball to third baseman Manny Machado. Elias Díaz scores.6–4
10Manny Machado homers (13) on a line drive to left center field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Samad Taylor scores.6–3
8Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Samad Taylor scores.3–3
8Manny Machado grounds out, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Jake Burger. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Samad Taylor to 2nd.2–3
7Jake Burger homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Jarred Kelenic scores.1–3
6Wyatt Langford doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Samad Taylor. Josh Jung scores.1–1
3Manny Machado doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Wyatt Langford. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
