Padres at Rangers
SD3–
TEX4Last play · Rodolfo Durán grounds into a force out, shortstop Ezequiel Duran to second baseman Nicky Lopez. Xander Bogaerts out at 2nd.
Win probability
Rangers100%
SD 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 3 – 4 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wyatt Langford homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Higashioka scores. Nicky Lopez scores. (inning 3) — +27% Rangers
4Josh Jung singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Nicky Lopez scores. Wyatt Langford to 2nd.3–4
4Sung-Mun Song doubles (2) on a fly ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Xander Bogaerts scores. Ty France to 3rd.3–3
4Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to center fielder Wyatt Langford. Manny Machado scores. Gavin Sheets out at home on the throw, center fielder Wyatt Langford to shortstop Ezequiel Duran to catcher Kyle Higashioka.2–3
4Gavin Sheets singles on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jackson Merrill scores. Manny Machado to 2nd.1–3
3Wyatt Langford homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Higashioka scores. Nicky Lopez scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.