Tigers at Rangers
Last play · Alejandro Osuna grounds out, shortstop Kevin McGonigle to first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
Win probability
Rangers0%
DET 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 3 – 0 TEX
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-121 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Riley Greene homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Kerry Carpenter scores. (inning 1) — -21% Tigers
2Ben Malgeri grounds out, shortstop Ezequiel Duran to first baseman Josh Smith. Colt Keith scores. Zach McKinstry to 3rd.3–0
1Riley Greene homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Kerry Carpenter scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
