Tigers at Rangers
Last play · Alejandro Osuna flies out to right fielder Matt Vierling.
Win probability
Rangers0%
DET 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 6 – 2 TEX
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Riley Greene homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Kerry Carpenter scores. (inning 4) — -26% Tigers
8Ezequiel Duran homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.6–3
5Brandon Nimmo singles on a line drive to shortstop Zach McKinstry. Nicky Lopez scores. Joc Pederson to 2nd.6–2
5Riley Greene triples (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Dillon Dingler scores. Kerry Carpenter scores.6–1
5Dillon Dingler singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. James Outman scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd.3–1
4Riley Greene homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Kerry Carpenter scores.2–1
3Jake Burger homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
