Astros at Rangers
Last play · Cam Smith grounds into a double play, shortstop Ezequiel Duran to second baseman Justin Foscue to first baseman Jake Burger. Jose Altuve out at 2nd. Cam Smith out at 1st.
Win probability
Rangers100%
HOU 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 3 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wyatt Langford homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — +38% Rangers
8Jake Burger homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Josh Jung scores. Brandon Nimmo scores.3–7
8Wyatt Langford homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.3–4
7Yainer Diaz homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. LaMonte Wade Jr. scores.3–3
6Yordan Alvarez homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field.1–3
5Joc Pederson homers (15) on a line drive to right field.0–3
1Jake Burger grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker. Josh Jung scores.0–2
1Brandon Nimmo doubles (21) on a line drive to left fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. Wyatt Langford scores. Josh Jung to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
