Astros at Rangers
Last play · Brandon Nimmo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cam Smith, deflected by pitcher Josh Hader. Wyatt Langford scores. Josh Jung to 3rd.
Win probability
Rangers100%
HOU 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 4 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Zach Dezenzo scores. Yainer Diaz scores. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd. (inning 7) — -36% Astros
9Brandon Nimmo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cam Smith, deflected by pitcher Josh Hader. Wyatt Langford scores. Josh Jung to 3rd.5–6
8Kyle Higashioka homers (7) on a line drive to left field.5–5
8Cam Smith homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.5–4
7Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Zach Dezenzo scores. Yainer Diaz scores. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.4–4
7Jeremy Peña out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Wyatt Langford. LaMonte Wade Jr. scores.2–4
5Brandon Nimmo triples (4) on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith, deflected by center fielder Taylor Trammell. Josh Jung scores.1–4
4Jose Altuve homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
2Joc Pederson doubles (8) on a fly ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Evan Carter scores. Nicky Lopez scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
