Astros at Rangers
Last play · Elias Díaz strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers0%
HOU 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 7 – 1 TEX
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · LaMonte Wade Jr. hits a grand slam (2) to right field. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve scores. (inning 3) — -23% Astros
9Ezequiel Duran homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Cam Cauley scores.9–3
9Cam Smith out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Evan Carter. Christian Walker scores.9–1
4Ezequiel Duran homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.7–1
4Christian Vázquez homers (5) on a line drive to left center field.7–0
3LaMonte Wade Jr. hits a grand slam (2) to right field. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve scores.6–0
1Yordan Alvarez homers (31) on a fly ball to center field. Jeremy Peña scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
